Broadband Politics » Sports

Baseball Forecast

Richard Bennett — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 21:41:33 +0000

Now for something really important, Major League Baseball. The key matchup between the A's and the Anaheim team looks like it's going to tilt in favor of the A's this year; the machine predictions back this up, even if the human predictions don't. Last year the A's suffered from an acute lack of offense, which placed the pitching staff under undue stress. The situation is reversed this year as the A's have a more potent offense than Anaheim, but there's no denying that the Anaheim pitching staff is stronger than the A's mostly-rookie rotation and mostly-discard bullpen. But the season covers 162 games and most of the results depend on which team's key players stay healthy. This is where the A's have the edge this year. The Anaheim outfield is composed of players who are all on the down side of their careers, aging stars Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, and Vladdy Guerrero. While Vladdy is the only one with a significant injury history, the others are at the point where hamstrings, ACLs, and quads are more fragile. The A's outfield, on the other hand, features slugger Matt Holliday at the peak of his career and youngsters Travis Buck and Ryan Sweeney on the verge of breakout. The A's outfield is also stronger defensively, which is fortunate given the age of the pitching staff. In the infield, the A's have rectified their three major deficits by signing Orlando Cabrera at short and Jason Giambi at first and getting Eric Chavez healthy. Giambi is an old-timer, but he's so happy to be back in Oakland after securing his retirement in New York that he's going to have a second childhood. Cabrera is one of my favorite shortstops because he's an all-around star, even if he's been labeled a clubhouse cancer by bitter fans who've seen their favorite player benched when OC came along. One of those guys, Nomar Garciaparra (he of the annoying tics) is a backup infielder for the A's this year. Eric Chavez appears to be healthy, hitting two homers in three games against the AAAA Giants last weekend, and his defense is stellar as ever. Jack Cust appears to be moving into a full-time DH role, suitable to his defensive skills and appropriate to his offensive ones. Landon Powell, the new backup catcher, has injury problems but is a superior thrower and hitter to starter Kurt Suzuki. I'd take the A's infield over the under-performing, weak hitting Anaheims any day of the week. The pitching staff is the big question mark, however. Justin Duchsherer continues to have problems with his elbow, shoulder, and hip indicative of bad mechanics. These problems don't tend to sort themselves out without the intervention of a Rick Peterson. Two of the A's starters haven't pitched above AA, so they're a wild card in big leagues at best. The remaining starters, Braden, Eveland, and Outman have thus far failed to distinguish themselves at the big league level, and the nominal closer is on the disabled list. Anaheim, on the other hand, has the most formidable starting five in baseball, when healthy. But fortunately for the A's, every single one is an injury risk (the season starts with the three best on the disabled list) so we can reasonably expect that the Anaheim farm system will end up carrying a great deal of the load this year. If the pitching staffs perform consistent with past results, including injury history, the A's will win the division. If Anaheim's witch doctors cast healing spells in favor of their geriatric outfield and rickety starting rotation, the A's will once again sit out the post-season. The Anaheims will most likely go far in the post-season if they make it, but that's another story. For the time being, it looks like the A's will win the division by 4 games.

Numb3rs botches Simpson’s Paradox

Richard Bennett — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 04:56:15 +0000

If you watch Numb3rs on CBS, you'll have noticed a rather bizarre discussion last night of Simpson's Paradox, which was alleged to say that combing two series of numbers into a single series can change their order (it doesn't really say that, but that's beside the point.) The example given was David Justice's and Derek Jeter's batting averages in 1995 and 1997. In each year, Justice had a better average than Jeter, but for the total of the two years, Jeter was alleged to have had a better average. It's not hard to figure out how this could be true, but it wasn't. The actual numbers for those years are these:

          Justice  H/AB     Jeter    H/AB
          -------           -----
1995       .253   104/411   .250     12/48
1997       .329   163/495   .291   190/654
==========================================
Comb.      .295   267/906   .288   202/702

Justice's numbers, Jeter's numbers If Jeter had hit better in 1997, much closer to Justice's average, it would have been true because Jeter very few at bats in 1995 and many more at bats in 1997 than Justice. For some bizarre reason, the show used fictitious numbers that didn't even add up, alleging that Justice hit .321 and .329 for a combined average of .298. How a show that's supposed to be so math-oriented can screw up arithmetic so badly would be a a mystery if it weren't for the fact that mathematicians are notoriously bad at basic arithmetic. H/T Amnesia, who also got it wrong. UPDATE: Aha! Reader Brian Thomas explains it all. See comments.

Congratulations, Phillies

Richard Bennett — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 12:24:21 +0000

A million fans came to the parade in Philly on Friday. I'd say baseball is still the National Pastime. This was a pretty decent World Series, apart from the Philly weather and the inept umpiring. I wanted the Rays to win, but the result's not exactly heart-breaking either. Comcast had a lot to do with it, apparently, which must rankle Mr. NASCAR, Kevin Martin, whose car has crashed. [caption id="attachment_5084" align="alignnone" width="280" caption="Million Fan March"][/caption]

Summing-up the Beijing Games

Richard Bennett — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:49:34 +0000

The LA Times boils China's Olympics down to their real essence:

Yet what planners in Beijing miscalculated is that no matter how well you teach performers to smile, the strain behind the lips is still detectable. The near-hysterical drive by Chinese leaders to put on the biggest, most spectacular sporting event ever, and to engineer a generation of Chinese medalists regardless of the financial or human costs, is rather more disconcerting to the outside world than convincing. If it was Beijing's intention to prove China's greatness via the Games, what it has demonstrated instead is the fragility of its ego.

Couldn't have said it better myself. So what does this say for the London Games?

British officials are no doubt wondering how they can possibly top the spectacle of Beijing when London hosts the Summer Games in 2012. They shouldn't even try. The British have nothing to prove, and it will be refreshing to watch an event in which athleticism matters more than image. The London Olympics will probably be messier and less awe-inspiring than the Chinese Games, but it's a good bet they'll be more fun

Sports is supposed to be fun, you know. That being said, an opening ceremony featuring Daleks and Cybermen would be welcome.

Like I said

Richard Bennett — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 21:41:33 +0000

Numb3rs botches Simpson’s Paradox

Richard Bennett — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 04:56:15 +0000

          Justice  H/AB     Jeter    H/AB
          -------           -----
1995       .253   104/411   .250     12/48
1997       .329   163/495   .291   190/654
==========================================
Comb.      .295   267/906   .288   202/702

Congratulations, Phillies

Richard Bennett — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 12:24:21 +0000

Summing-up the Beijing Games

Richard Bennett — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:49:34 +0000

The LA Times boils China's Olympics down to their real essence:

Yet what planners in Beijing miscalculated is that no matter how well you teach performers to smile, the strain behind the lips is still detectable. The near-hysterical drive by Chinese leaders to put on the biggest, most spectacular sporting event ever, and to engineer a generation of Chinese medalists regardless of the financial or human costs, is rather more disconcerting to the outside world than convincing. If it was Beijing's intention to prove China's greatness via the Games, what it has demonstrated instead is the fragility of its ego.

Couldn't have said it better myself. So what does this say for the London Games?

British officials are no doubt wondering how they can possibly top the spectacle of Beijing when London hosts the Summer Games in 2012. They shouldn't even try. The British have nothing to prove, and it will be refreshing to watch an event in which athleticism matters more than image. The London Olympics will probably be messier and less awe-inspiring than the Chinese Games, but it's a good bet they'll be more fun

Sports is supposed to be fun, you know. That being said, an opening ceremony featuring Daleks and Cybermen would be welcome.

Like I said

Richard Bennett — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 21:41:33 +0000

Broadband Politics » Sports

Richard Bennett — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 21:41:33 +0000

Numb3rs botches Simpson’s Paradox

Richard Bennett — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 04:56:15 +0000

          Justice  H/AB     Jeter    H/AB
          -------           -----
1995       .253   104/411   .250     12/48
1997       .329   163/495   .291   190/654
==========================================
Comb.      .295   267/906   .288   202/702

Congratulations, Phillies

Richard Bennett — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 12:24:21 +0000

Summing-up the Beijing Games

Richard Bennett — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:49:34 +0000

The LA Times boils China's Olympics down to their real essence:

Yet what planners in Beijing miscalculated is that no matter how well you teach performers to smile, the strain behind the lips is still detectable. The near-hysterical drive by Chinese leaders to put on the biggest, most spectacular sporting event ever, and to engineer a generation of Chinese medalists regardless of the financial or human costs, is rather more disconcerting to the outside world than convincing. If it was Beijing's intention to prove China's greatness via the Games, what it has demonstrated instead is the fragility of its ego.

Couldn't have said it better myself. So what does this say for the London Games?

British officials are no doubt wondering how they can possibly top the spectacle of Beijing when London hosts the Summer Games in 2012. They shouldn't even try. The British have nothing to prove, and it will be refreshing to watch an event in which athleticism matters more than image. The London Olympics will probably be messier and less awe-inspiring than the Chinese Games, but it's a good bet they'll be more fun

Sports is supposed to be fun, you know. That being said, an opening ceremony featuring Daleks and Cybermen would be welcome.

Like I said

Richard Bennett — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 04:56:15 +0000

          Justice  H/AB     Jeter    H/AB
          -------           -----
1995       .253   104/411   .250     12/48
1997       .329   163/495   .291   190/654
==========================================
Comb.      .295   267/906   .288   202/702

Broadband Politics » Sports

Richard Bennett — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 21:41:33 +0000

Numb3rs botches Simpson’s Paradox

Richard Bennett — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 04:56:15 +0000

          Justice  H/AB     Jeter    H/AB
          -------           -----
1995       .253   104/411   .250     12/48
1997       .329   163/495   .291   190/654
==========================================
Comb.      .295   267/906   .288   202/702

Congratulations, Phillies

Richard Bennett — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 12:24:21 +0000

Summing-up the Beijing Games

Richard Bennett — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:49:34 +0000

The LA Times boils China's Olympics down to their real essence:

Yet what planners in Beijing miscalculated is that no matter how well you teach performers to smile, the strain behind the lips is still detectable. The near-hysterical drive by Chinese leaders to put on the biggest, most spectacular sporting event ever, and to engineer a generation of Chinese medalists regardless of the financial or human costs, is rather more disconcerting to the outside world than convincing. If it was Beijing's intention to prove China's greatness via the Games, what it has demonstrated instead is the fragility of its ego.

Couldn't have said it better myself. So what does this say for the London Games?

British officials are no doubt wondering how they can possibly top the spectacle of Beijing when London hosts the Summer Games in 2012. They shouldn't even try. The British have nothing to prove, and it will be refreshing to watch an event in which athleticism matters more than image. The London Olympics will probably be messier and less awe-inspiring than the Chinese Games, but it's a good bet they'll be more fun

Sports is supposed to be fun, you know. That being said, an opening ceremony featuring Daleks and Cybermen would be welcome.

Like I said

Richard Bennett — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 12:24:21 +0000

Broadband Politics » Sports

Richard Bennett — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 21:41:33 +0000

Numb3rs botches Simpson’s Paradox

Richard Bennett — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 04:56:15 +0000

          Justice  H/AB     Jeter    H/AB
          -------           -----
1995       .253   104/411   .250     12/48
1997       .329   163/495   .291   190/654
==========================================
Comb.      .295   267/906   .288   202/702

Congratulations, Phillies

Richard Bennett — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 12:24:21 +0000

Summing-up the Beijing Games

Richard Bennett — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:49:34 +0000

The LA Times boils China's Olympics down to their real essence:

Yet what planners in Beijing miscalculated is that no matter how well you teach performers to smile, the strain behind the lips is still detectable. The near-hysterical drive by Chinese leaders to put on the biggest, most spectacular sporting event ever, and to engineer a generation of Chinese medalists regardless of the financial or human costs, is rather more disconcerting to the outside world than convincing. If it was Beijing's intention to prove China's greatness via the Games, what it has demonstrated instead is the fragility of its ego.

Couldn't have said it better myself. So what does this say for the London Games?

British officials are no doubt wondering how they can possibly top the spectacle of Beijing when London hosts the Summer Games in 2012. They shouldn't even try. The British have nothing to prove, and it will be refreshing to watch an event in which athleticism matters more than image. The London Olympics will probably be messier and less awe-inspiring than the Chinese Games, but it's a good bet they'll be more fun

Sports is supposed to be fun, you know. That being said, an opening ceremony featuring Daleks and Cybermen would be welcome.

Like I said

Richard Bennett — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:49:34 +0000

The LA Times boils China's Olympics down to their real essence:

Yet what planners in Beijing miscalculated is that no matter how well you teach performers to smile, the strain behind the lips is still detectable. The near-hysterical drive by Chinese leaders to put on the biggest, most spectacular sporting event ever, and to engineer a generation of Chinese medalists regardless of the financial or human costs, is rather more disconcerting to the outside world than convincing. If it was Beijing's intention to prove China's greatness via the Games, what it has demonstrated instead is the fragility of its ego.

Couldn't have said it better myself. So what does this say for the London Games?

British officials are no doubt wondering how they can possibly top the spectacle of Beijing when London hosts the Summer Games in 2012. They shouldn't even try. The British have nothing to prove, and it will be refreshing to watch an event in which athleticism matters more than image. The London Olympics will probably be messier and less awe-inspiring than the Chinese Games, but it's a good bet they'll be more fun

Sports is supposed to be fun, you know. That being said, an opening ceremony featuring Daleks and Cybermen would be welcome.

Broadband Politics » Sports

Richard Bennett — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 21:41:33 +0000

Numb3rs botches Simpson’s Paradox

Richard Bennett — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 04:56:15 +0000

          Justice  H/AB     Jeter    H/AB
          -------           -----
1995       .253   104/411   .250     12/48
1997       .329   163/495   .291   190/654
==========================================
Comb.      .295   267/906   .288   202/702

Congratulations, Phillies

Richard Bennett — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 12:24:21 +0000

Summing-up the Beijing Games

Richard Bennett — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:49:34 +0000

The LA Times boils China's Olympics down to their real essence:

Yet what planners in Beijing miscalculated is that no matter how well you teach performers to smile, the strain behind the lips is still detectable. The near-hysterical drive by Chinese leaders to put on the biggest, most spectacular sporting event ever, and to engineer a generation of Chinese medalists regardless of the financial or human costs, is rather more disconcerting to the outside world than convincing. If it was Beijing's intention to prove China's greatness via the Games, what it has demonstrated instead is the fragility of its ego.

Couldn't have said it better myself. So what does this say for the London Games?

British officials are no doubt wondering how they can possibly top the spectacle of Beijing when London hosts the Summer Games in 2012. They shouldn't even try. The British have nothing to prove, and it will be refreshing to watch an event in which athleticism matters more than image. The London Olympics will probably be messier and less awe-inspiring than the Chinese Games, but it's a good bet they'll be more fun

Sports is supposed to be fun, you know. That being said, an opening ceremony featuring Daleks and Cybermen would be welcome.

Like I said

Richard Bennett — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 19:53:32 +0000

I hate to say "I told you so" (actually, I love it, but play along), but the director of the Beijing games' opening and closing ceremonies touts the obedience of his countrymen in boosting his own work:

China's most famous film director, Zhang Yimou, who directed both ceremonies, said only Chinese performers were skilled, disciplined and obedient enough to lay on the sort of song and dance display seen on Sunday night and admired around the world... He also showed little concern for the few critical voices who found the mass organisation of thousands of performers reminiscent of the Soviet era. "I often joke with (foreign interviewers) and say that our level of human performance is second in the world," he said. "Number one is North Korea. Their performances are totally uniform, and uniformity in this way brings beauty. We Chinese can do it too. After hard training and strict discipline, Chinese achieve that as well."

It takes a peculiar aesthetic taste to find thousands of people acting in perfect unison beautiful, and there's no accounting for it. Either you do or you don't, and I'm among those who would rather see individual talent than such displays. The Brit segment during the closing stressed individualism and was therefore much more enjoyable. The Beijing Games were certainly well organized, with a minimum of cheating outside of boxing and women's gymnastics, and flowed well except for problems caused by the climate in Beijing and Hong Kong. Of course it rains in London as well, but it won't be so hot and muggy, and the equestrian events won't be shortened. It's kinda sad that baseball and softball won't be played, but all the events outside the core track and field competitions should be regarded as optional fluff anyhow; the Greeks didn't tumble and play ping-pong, because Britain didn't invent ping-pong until the 19th century.